Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 0.364085 0.422524 0.485940 0.559689 0.642913 0.733729 0.840136
2025-05-18 0.268025 0.340840 0.426029 0.532410 0.660995 0.810659 0.997246
2025-05-25 0.196231 0.273101 0.369866 0.499175 0.665808 0.871520 1.142652
2025-06-01 0.151910 0.231137 0.338250 0.490954 0.699881 0.972132 1.349448
2025-06-08 0.116687 0.194517 0.307610 0.479500 0.728742 1.070701 1.567501
2025-06-15 0.095757 0.174337 0.296634 0.493953 0.795708 1.229381 1.886361
2025-06-22 0.071408 0.143302 0.263872 0.471211 0.806462 1.311885 2.110867
2025-06-29 0.054539 0.120692 0.240138 0.458618 0.831108 1.418382 2.383987
2025-07-06 0.041196 0.100887 0.217095 0.443177 0.849205 1.517669 2.658815
2025-07-13 0.033852 0.090995 0.210082 0.454791 0.914667 1.700501 3.085546
2025-07-20 0.026706 0.079293 0.197011 0.452948 0.956594 1.849940 3.475147
2025-07-27 0.021744 0.071093 0.189360 0.460439 1.017023 2.038386 3.950324
2025-08-03 0.017335 0.062957 0.180581 0.465592 1.077106 2.238993 4.477919
2025-08-10 0.012606 0.051786 0.161644 0.445037 1.083469 2.343578 4.849213
2025-08-17 0.008864 0.041637 0.142107 0.418729 1.073781 2.417332 5.173974
2025-08-24 0.006721 0.035737 0.132166 0.413434 1.109075 2.583828 5.691609
2025-08-31 0.005007 0.030352 0.121902 0.405011 1.136225 2.737745 6.201961
2025-09-07 0.004110 0.027882 0.119962 0.418753 1.218127 3.015409 6.984907
2025-09-14 0.002900 0.022864 0.107592 0.400042 1.218089 3.118674 7.426358
2025-09-21 0.002112 0.019301 0.098890 0.389928 1.238103 3.268415 7.978916
2025-09-28 0.001504 0.016101 0.090106 0.377173 1.249039 3.399084 8.503954
2025-10-05 0.001217 0.014778 0.088544 0.387845 1.325557 3.689847 9.400275
2025-10-12 0.000919 0.012947 0.083884 0.386710 1.368963 3.907150 10.154153